Tuesday, 1 May 2018

Who holds the key ? Media Polls – Karnataka Politics Part 3



Karnataka goes to polls on May 12 and the counting of votes will take place on May 15. 3 parties fighting harder to win - the Indian National Congress (INC), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular).




Speculations are already started who would emerge victorious in this battle of Karnataka 2018.

Will Congress protect one of the last states in Country?
Will BJP add another state and make the count as 22?
Will JDS be a King or a King Maker?

Let us see the Media poll reports,

3 different polling reports in our hands - Times Now, Jain University and NTV-NG Mindframe survey. Here we see what the seat count these 3 reports give for Parties.

PARTY
TIMES NOW-VMR
JAIN UNIV-CSDS
NTV-NG MINDFRAME
POLL OF POLLS
CONGRESS
91
88
100
93
BJP
89
92
80
87
JD(S)+BSP
40
35
38
38
OTHERS
4
9
6
6
 
As per Media polling reports
 
Congress with Siddaramaiah as CM candidate will get an average of 93 seats out of 224, which is 29 seats less than 2013 Assembly elections. This difference is due to anti-incumbency in the state, not a single Assembly election in Karnataka since 1985 has returned the incumbent ruling party to power. The 1985 election saw the return of Janata Party’s Ramakrishna Hegde as the chief minister for the second time is the last.

BJP with B.S.Yeddyurappa as CM candidate will get an average of 87 seats out of 224, which is 47 seats more than Assembly election 2013. In 2011, Yeddyurappa removed from BJP party after he was accused of illegal mining case, then Yeddyurappa formed a new party KJP and contested the 2013 election and won only 6 seats. Later he joined BJP after all the cases in his name were withdrawn and also Yeddyurappa from Lingayat Community, one of the biggest community in the state.

JDS with H.D.Kumaraswamy as CM candidate will get an average of 38 seats out of 224, which is 2 seats less than 2013 Assembly polls. 

BJP VS Congress VS JDS – Caste Factor



Lingayats and SC/ST community hold the top positions in deciding CM for Karnataka. 

How Caste Factor affect Karnataka elections in Percentage (%) 

Past 4 Election Average
Current Scenario
PARTY
*State Average (%)
Vokkaliga Belt (%)
High Muslim Areas(%)
SC/ST Belt (%)
Lingayats Belt (%)
Mixed Belt (%)
CONGRESS
38
35
42
38
37
39
BJP
38
31
39
35
44
43
JD(S)+BSP
16
27
11
17
11
9
OTHERS
8
7
8
10
8
9

Vokkaliga Belt  
Vokkaliga caste strength increases the vote bank of JDS by 11% compared to previous elections. Separate and minority community status for Lingayat is the reason behind this huge vote shift. Vokkaliga community affected strongly if Lingayat is recognized as a Minority community, Deve Gowda and H.D.Kumarswamy playing this community difference as a trump card to attract Vokkaliga voters.

High Muslim areas
A slight increase in Vote Percentage for Congress in Muslim majority areas (4% increases), this will affect the JDS vote share of 11% in previous elections. Siddaramaih trying to portray Saffron Party as anti-Muslim Party and this vote shift show he successfully did that. 

SC/ST Belt
Emerging SC/ST and Dalit movements all over the country led by Prakash Ambedkar and Jignesh Mevani against ruling BJP makes an impact in Karnataka with a slight decrease in Vote share for BJP of 3% Votes. Even this vote difference does not benefit Congress. This will Benefit JDS (BSP, Mayawati effect).

Lingayats Belt
A major move by Siddaramaih, separate minority status for Lingayat community. As per the reports, this move worked well towards Congress. Even BJP gaining the vote share of 6% in Lingayat belt is not a loss to Congress, it’s a loss to JDS. Congress maintained their Vote shares in Lingayat belt by handled Lingayat Problem at last minute of the election. 

People Preference for CM

Siddaramaiah – 33 % Holds the first position. He is the only CM after 40 years to survive the entire 5-year term in Karnataka (2013 – 2018), this shows his ability to run the government.
B.S.Yeddyurappa – 26%
H.D.Kumaraswamy – 21%

As per the reports, 

Karnataka Elections going to be a close contest and still now it looks like no party will get a majority to form Government. JDS won't be in the contest for CM post, but they are going to do the role of King Maker.

And most importantly BJP's master batsman not yet Came for Campaigning. Even all the parties are waiting for Modi's arrival. I think no one will forget what happens in Gujarat last year, last 2 days of Modi's campaign turned the clock and give the win to BJP. So, we had to wait until May 15th to know whether Congress has any hope to contest 2019 General Elections.

And whatever we think and reports show, there is an X-Factor 
Karnataka polls-Seizure report:
On April – 30 only
  •  4,20,00,700 rupees seized in cash
  •   Liquor seized is 1063.47 liters, which costs 5.54 Lakhs
  •   610 grams of Gold, worth of 14.5 lakhs
  •   Silver 12.165 kg, worth of 2.4 lakhs

Since March 27 - The cumulative seize stands at 115,90,81,235.56!

Before expecting good Governance from Politicians, People should not sell their Votes for Notes or Castes or Religions blindly. Until then we can't enjoy the Independence and Democracy in this biggest democratic independent country INDIA...

Readers, now you got the answer to the Question Who holds the KEY?
Officially, it was JDS.
Unofficially, It was Money.

Think and Vote ........

Thanks
Prabhu Ram


2 comments:

  1. Yes you are correct; to get info about Karnataka Election 2018, stay with India Breaking News Today

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sure man, Thanks for your support and I will keep in touch with you

    ReplyDelete